'Super Saturday' election trial-run for Australian government
SYDNEY (Reuters) - Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull is vying to secure a 100-year first this weekend by winning a seat from the opposition at a by-election and with it a possible pathway to victory at the next national election due by May 2019.
Turnbull’s personal popularity is at its highest level in two years, according to the latest opinion poll, but his conservative government badly trails the Labor opposition.
In what is being called “Super Saturday”, voters in five seats will go to the polls after a handful of opposition lawmakers were forced from office after falling foul of the country’s constitution that bans politicians from elected office if they are dual citizens.
Some political analysts believe a very strong showing in the by-elections could tempt Turnbull to call an early poll.
Polls indicate the ruling centre-right government has a strong chance of wining the Labor-held seat of Longman, in the state of Queensland, after Pauline Hanson’s far-right One Nation Party encouraged its supporters to preference Turnbull ahead of the country’s opposition Labor Party on their ballot papers.
Picking up at least one of the five seats contested will double Turnbull’s parliamentary majority to two and make him less beholden to his backbench. Three prime ministers have been ousted by their own parties since 2010 after their popularity waned and the party believed they could not win re-election.
A victory in Longman could also provide a possible blueprint to securing re-election at the next federal poll.
Hanson is unlikely to formally endorse Turnbull when the next election is called, sources close to the lawmaker say.
But under a barrage of attack from the opposition Labor Party, she is leaning towards recommending preference, or secondary, votes for the government, the sources say, an arrangement that would leave the result of the next federal election in the balance.
Australians mark ballot papers in order of candidate preference. If no candidate wins more than 50 percent of the vote, the candidate with the fewest votes is eliminated and their votes are given to the second preference candidate. This continues until one candidate wins.